Karachi: For Whom the Death Tolls

The number of target killings, or the death toll, is a serious business as it identifies the trend in urban violence. But a close scrutiny of the process of posting the death toll leaves a lot to be desired.
Here’s how it’s done. The crime reporter of a media outlet calls up the police stations for crime updates, including target killings. The police officer gives the figure, including the names and exact location. The crime reporter adds up the figures and gets the daily death toll.

Two stages in the process are highly culpable. First, the police method of collating data and second the reporters’ reluctance to verify the police claim. Reporters have an easy source to verify deaths. They can call up the medico-legal officers of major hospitals. But what happens to those bodies that the police don’t know about?
Differentiating between a target killing and a routine street crime death is also crucial. TV channels and reporters, in competition with each, sometimes jack up the number of target killings by adding the normal street crime deaths to the target killing death toll.
While the death toll becomes headline news and is discussed in public as a barometer of urban violence, those who are injured are ignored after one mention. Around half of the injured people normally pass away because of late medical attention or a lack of it. That number is never added up to the death toll. No one cares whether they lost a limb or were handicapped for life. No one cares whether he or she was the lone breadwinner of their family.
Neither the Muttahida Qaumi Movement nor the Awami National Party has a policy of officially sanctioning the killing of each other’s workers. Or so say their leaders. They don’t even encourage their workers to knock them out. Who are these devils on motorbikes, then? They are young men who have been hired by political leaders to work as their guards or help them out in election campaigns. Once the leaders are elected or thrown out of the elections, these young men suddenly became redundant. The elected leaders are provided police guards and the leaders who lost the race do not need guards any more.
But these young men who had access to weapons such as Kalashnikovs and TT pistols grow disgruntled with the situation. They are mostly unemployed and their hopes for a better life for themselves and their families are dashed. Some young men, in all honestly, returned their weapons to the political leaders and decided to wait for a better opportunity but some decided not to hand back the weapons to their rightful owners.
Their aim in life became the illegal occupation of flats, shops and offices in Karachi and thus ensued a cut-throat competition among the boys from different parties. And when matters were not sorted out at the negotiation table, which was often the case, out came the guns and hence the ‘target killings’. These boys used the clout of their affiliation with powerful political leaders and parties to illegally get hold of private property and sell it on the open market.
Although it cannot be corroborated, rumours have it that political leaders have in some cases fully supported their former guards as they offered to share the looted property. This is why the police and security agencies are scared of throwing them in jail. And when they do, they are promptly ‘bailed out’. In one instance, the Karachi police, under pressure from Islamabad really went for the boys and arrested about 300 of them. But soon after, their patrons worked the phones mobiles and had them released. When the young men with political affiliations were released, one police station called their senior officers. ‘Sir, all of the boys have been freed but what should we do with these seven odd boys for whom nobody has called so far?’ The apparently hapless police officers laughed out loud and then told the police station to release them as well.
Published in The Express Tribune, August 6th, 2010.

One Flu Over The Cuckoo’s Nest


Since December 2003, the H5N1 bird flu virus has infected some 120 people either by repeated close contact with fowl or after eating half-cooked chicken products. In not a single case has human-to-human transfer been confirmed. So long as that remains the case, there is no bird flu threat to the human population yet the Western media is spinning a scare as horrible as the flu pandemic of 1918 that claimed millions of lives.
The 1918 influenza in Europe spread in two waves: one in the month of March, and it was only marginally more dangerous than the flu outbreaks of the previous years. But in the trenches of war-torn Europe, it mutated into a virus that swept back across the world killing millions. The differences between the 1918 scenario and any new flu pandemic development takes the air out of the scare spread by the vested interest.
1918 was a year when World War I was fought largely in trenches, and they were the most unhygienic of human habitats. When the units were not fighting, they were living in military barracks which were no better than the trenches. Since they were not in the best of their health they were constantly exposed to airborne diseases and susceptible to dying of flu. Half of American troops who died in the World War I did not fell at the front, but were culled by the flu. Frequent movement of military units from one front to the other and from one country to the other, the flu in 1918 broke into the civilian populations the world over. In 2005, there is war in Iraq and Afghanistan and pockets of unrest elsewhere, but nowhere are trenches to be seen.
The health and nutrition levels have radically changed in the past 80 years. Simply, the healthier a person is going into a sickness, the better his or her chances are of emerging from it. Indeed, a huge consideration in any modern-day pandemic is availability of and access to medical care. Poorer people tend to live in closer quarters and are more likely to have occupations (military, services, construction, etc.) in which they regularly encounter large numbers of people. According to a 1931 study of the 1918 flu pandemic, the poor were about 20 to 30 percent more likely to contract the flu, and overall mortality rates of the "well-to-do" were less than half that of the "poor" and "very poor."
The 1918 pandemic virus was similar to the more standard influenza virus in that the majority of those who perished died not from the primary attack of the flu but from secondary infections that triggered pneumonia. While antibiotics are useless against viruses, they raise the simple possibility of stemming bacterial or fungal infections. Penicillin was the first commercialized antibiotic and it was discovered in 1929, 11years after the Spanish Flu pandemic of 1918.
Comparison of Bird Flu “pandemic” with the Spanish flu of 1918 which claimed millions of lives evokes images of mayhem in the cities and indeed end of time as some claim this pandemic to be part of. The right comparison would be the “Y2K” that sacred computer users including multinationals to spend billions of dollars into finding a solution to the bug which never happened. If one understands the principle of seeking funds which is: convince potential donors how bad things could get and scare them into finding a solution, the picture becomes clear that fund-seekers are using fear only to evoke interest and action!
There’s no backing away from the fact that more research is needed into finding a cure for highly mutable viral infections. The best the world has is Tamiflu. But will the end of time come through Bird Flu? Certainly not. There is no reason to fear a worldwide flu pandemic this winter as there is no way to predict when a bird virus will break into the human population. There is no scientifically plausible reason to expect such a crossover to be imminent.
A total of 120 people catching the flu over a period of three years does not really qualify the trumpeted Bird Flu to qualify for a human pandemic. The first-ever human case of H5N1, by the way, was not in 2003 but in 1997. There is nothing new in this year's bird flu. So, as long as the virus stays in birds and does not leap into humans, its chance of bringing about a pandemic is as bright as the chance of a meteor striking the earth.
(The author is a freelance journalist and media strategist in Pakistan.)